Atlantic hurricane season: Extra tropical waves to observe heading into the top of August as season begins to enter its peak

As Hurricane Erin continues to churn within the Atlantic, two extra tropical waves are anticipated to maneuver off the west coast of Africa earlier than the month is over. This comes as hurricane season begins to enter its peak timeframe, when water temperatures are at their warmest and atmospheric situations start to change into favorable for storm growth.

Proper on time, the tropics within the Atlantic have come alive this month after a virtually months-long hiatus in July. Moreover Hurricane Erin, two tropical waves farther east within the Atlantic have low to medium odds of creating over the subsequent two weeks. One is presently forecast to take an identical observe to that of Erin, monitoring east of the Caribbean and staying within the Atlantic.

SEE ALSO: What NOAA predicts for the remainder of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Then there’s one other tropical wave that, as of Tuesday, Aug. 19, simply moved off the west coast of Africa. As a result of this wave is so distant and simply coming into the Atlantic, there’s extra variability with when this wave might become a possible tropical system and the place it might go. If this wave had been to develop right into a tropical storm or hurricane farther east throughout the deep tropics, it could probably take an identical observe to that of Erin as properly, using across the giant Bermuda Excessive. Nonetheless, if this wave had been to make it farther west and develop nearer to or, if not, within the Caribbean, then it might pose a danger to Southeast Texas if it had been to maneuver into the Gulf in early September.

So whereas the primary sample pattern favors storms staying within the Atlantic for now, that might not be the case later this fall. One factor to notice about if or when any system both develops or tracks into the Caribbean, there are extraordinarily heat, untouched seas that any tropical system might use as gasoline to quickly intensify later this season.

For the month of August, the same old tracks a storm might take are like that of Erin (staying within the Atlantic across the Bermuda Excessive) or creating east of the Lesser Antilles after which coming into the Caribbean. If a storm had been to enter the Caribbean, it might then observe northwest into the Gulf or keep farther east, nearer to Florida. For September, we start to see that pattern open up much more avenues for storms to enter the Caribbean and Gulf throughout what is usually the height season.

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season happens on Sept. 10, however as Dr. Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State College notes, situations start to be extra favorable for storms as early as Aug. 20. He tells ABC13 Meteorologist Elyse Smith, “My mentor, Dr. Invoice Grey, used to really ring a bell yearly on August the twentieth signaling the energetic a part of the season.”

For extra on this story, comply with Elyse Smith on Fb, Twitter and Instagram.